Philippine Defense Effort …too little …too late

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“We will oppose the change of status quo by force by anyone,”  This was a recent statement made by Admiral Samuel Locklear, the commander of the US Pacific Command concerning the dispute over the territories at the West Philippine Sea. The declaration should be comforting and reassuring especially for the Philippines that has the weakest military in the region. However, the statement is less clear than the ambiguous terms of the mutual defense agreement between the Philippines and the United States in relation to the current events at West Philippine Sea.  Certain things however is apparent, the status quo had been breached; force and coercion had been used… only there was no armed resistance; the atolls, islets and territorial waters belonging to the Philippines under the status quo is now occupied by China’s heavily armed frigates disguised as maritime surveillance ships. The construction of Chinese bases on these occupied areas according to recent reports has started. To state now that a status quo should be maintained after it changes had place the Philippines to the disadvantage. A move perhaps by the US Pacific Command to drive the Chinese from their occupied Philippine territories back to the original status quo could have given credence to Admiral Locklear’s statement. Unfortunately, the statement itself just came in … too little…too late.

On the Philippine scene, the effort to upgrade the Philippine armed forces seems to have focus in the long-term, which of course is ideal in a relatively peaceful and normal security environment. What the Philippine decision makers failed to accept or may have shunned upon is the reality that the nation is currently under attack. Its territories are being occupied; its resources is ruthlessly being exploited and utilized by a foreign power. Rhetoric’s and statements of the Philippine government is seemingly aimed at projecting a semblance of normalcy to an idea that they have a knowledge of China’s plan to occupy the West Philippine Sea in the immediate future and that they are preparing Philippine defenses through a programmed acquisition of military hardware to effectively detect and counter that threat. A misleading pretention borne out of self-induced hallucination that creates a temporary refuge from pain and rigors of current reality. More of the painful reality is that the acquisition of the FA/50 light attack fighter jets has yet to reach the contract negotiation stage. Assuming, that they will be able to complete the contract agreement sometime this year, the manufacturing, delivery and the training required to fly this jets in combat may conservatively take two to three more years. The same may be said on the planned acquisition of two brand new frigates which is yet to reach the bidding process. Its construction, weaponization until the final delivery may take three years and the training of its operator may take one year. Many expert believes that the most effective, credible, and doable defense deterrence for the Philippines given its geographic proximity to the contested areas are mobile coastal missile batteries, and yet there is not even a missile procurement plan that is evident at the mouth of the pipeline. One can imagine how China with its resolve and enormous resources can whimsically transform the West Philippine Sea in the next five years. Floating air and naval bases in the vicinity of Palawan and Panatag; hundreds of oil drilling platforms scattered along the west coast of the Philippines; reclamations for tourism purposes and the decimation of fishing resource. It may become a too big investment for China that they will fight tooth and nail to keep and preserve it. One may realize that the Philippine defense program to the extent that it is publicly visible is relatively short in relevance, and is deprived of realism. As a consequence for the Philippines, it may also come …too little …too late…

On the UN body to where the Philippines brought its case for arbitration and adjudication, its rendition of judgement and final resolution may even be lengthier, probably five years to a decade based on historical assumption. A lot could transpire during the years of waiting. Even if the resolution finally comes, there is no certainty that it will be respected by China, if it turns out to be unfavorable for them. In which case, another question would arise on the aspect of enforcement. Again for the Philippines, it may come… too little …too late.

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