AFP Modernization, a square peg on a round hole

Let us make a concise appraisal of the real situation the Philippines is currently facing at the West Philippine Sea. With the orientation that the South China Sea is part of their destiny, the Chinese is hell bent in practically taking as their own the whole of that waters to include the appertaining islets, atolls and islands within the 200 miles exclusive economic zone of the western Philippines. The growing aggressiveness of China attests to that resolve. Filipino fisherman had dared not to venture in this zone due to the continues harassment by the omnipresent armed para-military Chinese vessels. In the southwest a token force of Filipino troops stationed at a dilapidated ship at the Ayungin reef can barely be reach by the re-supplying Philippine vessels on account of Chinese intimidation. The general area is taken and occupied by a foreign force, a state of siege exist tantamount to occupation and invasion. The sovereign right is violated. Diplomatic options were exhausted, and ongoing is the case alternatively filed by the Philippines for UN resolution. China’s non-participation is a direct display of arrogance and disrespect to the United Nations, effectively rejecting the provisions of an international agreement (UNCLOS) in which it is a signatory. Consequently, it may mean that whatever is the future judgement of the UN body, China may likewise reject. -The Hole

The Philippine's calm response and actuation amid the Chinese incursions were praised by the US, and other countries highlighting its propriety under the current circumstances. A courteous and polite way of saying, you can’t fight, just plea. It pertains  to the state and circumstances of the Philippine Army that is figuratively armed only with M16 rifles. The purported Air Force that lacks the “orce”, and the lone old cannon Navy that could barely swim the rough waters of the South China Sea. At this writing, the Philippines is embarked on a modernization effort that supposedly aimed at achieving a minimum credible defense status in 10 years. At the same time, it is in the process of equipment shopping for its short term capability upgrade, a phrase that is similarly obscure than “minimum credible defense” and “modernization“ per se. It is evident that the ongoing procurement has the characteristic more of building an army literally from scratch than upgrading or modernizing. It is in similarity with the establishment of the new Afghan National Army and the reconstituted Iraqi Army. Examples of the recent equipment acquisitions and would be acquisitions are m4 rifles, field radios, a few hundred shouldered fired RPG’s, trucks from Korea, 2 naval cutters unarmed by blue water navy standard, a few unarmed helicopters for rescue and a couple that is ASW capable but without that capability. News of M113a2 procurement has been reported. 12 Elbit 155 Howitzers is also in the pipeline. Currently in bidding are 2 or 3 SSV’s, and 2 planes for transport, evacuation and cargo purposes. Radar from Raytheon is also in the pipeline. The most expensive is the acquisition of two brand new frigates that specification-wise is equally dismal in terms of capability. The most controversial and currently in the hang are the 12 FA 50 jets lead-in fighter jets from South Korea. – The PEG

Just assuming that all of these items are on hand and ready for use, how will the “PEG” fit into the “HOLE” described in the preceding paragraphs? How can these ticket items arrest the Chinese advances, much less dissuade them from the offensive act? Time and again the Philippine government pronounces that the current and future efforts to uplift its military is in normal pursuit of a the modernization law atrophied by time. According to them the AFP modernization is not meant or programmed for any particular country. If that is true, then the upgrade, credible defense and modernization rhetoric’s are  not at all meant to feel the “HOLE” as described above. What then? Is there a pandemic of Myopia in the Philippine Government? In the Philippine Military? Are they intentionally looking at the other way? Is there an attempt to disfigure the substance of the procurement so that there will be a continuing excuse not to respond against a push that is now a shove. Had they lost their track to limping away from the scenario that is the "Hole".

Time is always a factor for consideration when making a decision. In case of the Philippine military procurement, it is devoid of that most important element, in relation to the demand of current reality referred in this text as the “HOLE”. The planned major ticket items may only be available to be placed into effective use several years from now, not without the infrastructures that is essential to support them, the training that is imperative towards its competent utilization, the command and control structure, the coordination and indoctrinization to fit the equipment with the adapted strategy, etc. The complexity of military procurement does not end in receiving the item, and that is a major pitfall. Another factor is the substance. Priorities are given to the implementation of the modernization law hoping that the PEG will reshape and shoot itself to the HOLE as described above. But nothing can be farther from reality. The existing situation demands a fitting response with equipments befitting that response. A convincing, practical, responsive and relevant procurement should have been substituted to realign expenditures with task at hand, or even so, paralleled in tandem with the modernization law, through the use of emergency measures that is constitutionally available. There is so much rigidity in the Philippine Military procurement that it cannot be made to adapt with the changing level of threat. It is like buying an umbrella in summer or a swimsuit in winter.

Will the priority ever change, soon? Will there be time? Will the substance remain as it is? Unresponsive, out of shape and off- specs so to speak.

While it is no longer necessary to discuss what is needed to be done, since everyone knows what should have been done in the AFP procurement in the light of the present challenges, it is still a good practice to always re-evaluate an option in line with changes.

So… to the light then!


Update:

 http://www.manilatimes.net/aquino-raises-doubts-on-afp-modernization/217377/