Scarborough shoal

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My conspiracy theory as to why China is hellbent to control Scarborough shoal, also known as Panatag shoal.

It is all tied up to their so called nine dash line. It means a buffer zone against American encirclement and at the same time, to gain control towards the exploitation of potential resources in the South China Sea, that include the West Philippine Sea. This are well known motivation for China's unjustified assertion and despicable aggression. It has been established that Recto bank has oil deposit, but what about the shoal? What is so particular about Scarborough that many seemingly are still unaware? 

In 2018 China proposed a submarine research facility beneath the sea in the area of the Manila trench. It is the deepest part that hugs the western side of Luzon. Manila trench is estimated to be at around 120 kilometers from Scarborough and around 60 kilometers from Zambales (Correct me if I am wrong).

In March 2024, University of the Philippines scientist did a survey of the Manila trench and they discovered the presence of hydrates comprising in an area of around 15,400 square kilometers. Hydrates are evidence of natural gas, methane in particular.

Just recently September 2025, China announced their plan to declare Scarborough area as a national reserve. Meaning access may be completely restricted and the reserve will be administered by none other but China. But there is a problem, it is well within the Philippines exclusive economic zone, hence China's proposal would be a clear violation of Philippine rights under international rule.

China's past and present plan was indicative and is consistent with an unwavering interest to control the potential methane gas deposits beneath the sea floor of the Manila trench which may have been known to them, even before Duterte assumed office. China has the resources to explore and extract whatever deposits of natural gas there is beneath the sea floor and the shoals proximity to the trench may have encouraged China to steal the resources that rightfully belongs to the Philippines. A foothold via an artificial island could creep towards the trench to the point that may allow directional drilling. One caveat, is that the trench is pretty much fragile. In fact, experts has drawn attention to the possibility of 9.2 magnitude earthquake and 10 meters tsunami induced by the trench violent movement, which may translate into cataclysmic destruction in the Luzon' s western coast. Again, what I am saying is that China's interest in Scarborough shoal goes beyond the sea floor. It's not about the fish. It could be deeper.

( Disclaimer: It's just a theory... a conspiracy theory).

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